Germany Part Two
In my last post, I gave a quick snapshot of Germany’s cannabis legalization ups and downs. 2024 was a big year for German cannabis, with the rollout of both the CanG and KCanG legislative pillars that legalized adult-use possession and home grows, and paved the way for commercial cultivation too.
Germany currently operates across three key markets, and one potential avenue for growth:
1️⃣ The Illicit Market
2️⃣ Cannabis Social Clubs (nonprofit, member-based cultivation)
3️⃣ Medical Market (insured and doctor-prescribed access)
4️⃣ Recreational Pilot Programs (pending further legislative action)
Those potential pilot programs would lower the barrier for entry for international investment, including expansion by U.S. and Canadian cannabis companies. The entrepreneurs vying for pilot program licenses believe the next phase of German cannabis law will address current restrictions and challenges in retail, product mix and branding.
🚦In December, however, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost his vote of confidence and now there are new elections coming on February 23—and the pilot program hangs in the balance. Although the upcoming elections in Germany will be primarily focused on topics like the economy, immigration and the war in Ukraine, they will also factor into this tangential issue.
It’s impossible to predict precisely what will happen. But there are a few things that are already established.
📣Louder for the people in the back: Cannabis was officially removed from Germany’s narcotics list.
🙌This, combined with Germany’s robust medicinal cannabis program, has led to explosive growth in the medical sector—easily outpacing recreational cannabis. Here’s what you need to know:
📊 In 2023, the recreational cannabis market in Germany was valued at over €31.8M ($32.8M USD).
📈 It’s projected to grow at a CAGR of 14.9% from 2024 to 2030.
💶 Medical cannabis sales alone were expected to exceed €420M (~$455M USD) in 2024 and hit €1B by 2028.
One thing is clear: Germany is the economic engine of the EU train, and its cannabis market offers enormous potential for growth and innovation.
For U.S. companies or international players looking to break into the German or broader EU cannabis space, now is the time to act. The opportunities are immense.
🌍 Let’s connect and explore how to capitalize on this emerging market. You can catch me on another New Holland Group winter tour coming up soon.
